New DfE data model to inform intervention in children’s social care

The Department for Education (DfE) has introduced a new data model to help identify local authorities in England that may require greater scrutiny, support or intervention over their children’s social care services.

The model brings together information on local authority performance and trends, Ofsted inspection outcomes and progress in delivering the Families First Partnership (FFP) programme. It forms part of a simplified approach to children’s social care improvement and intervention, aligned with the Government’s wider reform priorities.

The guidance, updated on 6 November, sets out how authorities will be assessed using a combination of indicators covering the health of local children’s social care systems and their progress in implementing the FFP programme.

System health measures include the proportion of children referred back to children’s social care within 12 months, the ratio of section 47 enquiries to child protection plan starts, repeat child protection plans, social worker turnover and the proportion of agency social workers.

Other indicators include local authority expenditure, residential care costs, the rate of children looked after, and the proportions of children leaving care through special guardianship orders and adoption.

The FFP assessment examines progress across areas including family help, multi-agency child protection, support for family networks, multi-agency safeguarding arrangements and information sharing. Local authorities report progress through quarterly data collections, with up to 39 indicators used to assess delivery against programme expectations.

The model scores authorities on their current performance and changes over time, grouping them into quartiles according to their position nationally. It also takes account of how each authority performs relative to its statistical neighbours, recognising that differences in local circumstances and levels of demand can affect children’s social care services.

For the FFP assessment, indicators are classified as on track, potentially off track, off track or not applicable. Authorities receive a percentage score based on the expectations that apply to them, with the system health and FFP components given equal weighting in the overall assessment.

The resulting scores are used to place local authorities into five groups, ranging from the highest level of concern to the lowest. Authorities judged inadequate in any practice area by Ofsted are automatically placed in the highest risk category.

However, the DfE stresses that the model is not intended to provide a standalone judgement of an authority or automatically trigger a particular response. Its output is described as an evidence-led starting point for discussions and further investigation, to be considered alongside professional judgement, local circumstances and information gathered through regular engagement with departmental officials.

The guidance acknowledges that children’s social care performance is influenced by factors that cannot be fully measured through national datasets, including professional practice, workforce capacity, local service provision and demographic characteristics.

It also recognises the importance of partnership working, noting that local authorities must work with education, health, policing and housing services to respond to the needs of children and families.

The model has a number of limitations. Some missing data is replaced with estimates or information from alternative sources, while in other cases authorities may be assigned the worst-performing quartile for a particular measure. The FFP assessment also relies on information reported by local authorities themselves and may be affected by missing or inaccurate returns.

The DfE warns that the statistical method used to create the five groups can mean relatively small changes in data move an authority between categories. Authorities with very similar scores may fall into different groups, while those with quite different scores may be placed together. The number of authorities in each group may also change when the model is recalculated.

Responding to the guidance, the Association of Directors of Children’s Services (ADCS) said that scrutiny needed to be accompanied by shared responsibility across public services and sustained investment.

Ann Graham, ADCS President, said: “Robust scrutiny is important, but meaningful and sustained improvement must be a whole-system responsibility. Local authorities cannot reasonably be held to account for issues or delay in the health, education, and criminal justice systems, nor can we fix poverty, poor housing and the other social factors that impact on children’s lives and drive demand for support.”

“ADCS has welcomed the ambition of children's social care reforms, particularly the shift towards earlier help and support, but delivering lasting change takes time and a partnership approach. We need government to recognise itself as an equal partner in delivery and focus on creating the conditions for success to turn policy into practice in local areas. This means more than setting expectations and collecting data, we need more help to secure consistent partner buy in and to ensure that inspection, intervention, and wider government reforms work together rather than creating competing pressures.”

She added: “Local authorities are ambitious for children and young people and committed to sector-led improvement. Lasting improvement requires shared ownership and accountability across the whole system, including national government, alongside sustained investment”