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Twenty years of persistent levels of poverty for children and adults

A new report from the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF) finds two in 10 adults and three in 10 children across the UK living in poverty.

30/01/25

Twenty years of persistent levels of poverty for children and adults

Researchers have called for investment in social security to form a part of its child poverty strategy after the Joseph Rowntree Foundation’s (JRF) annual report showed that, under central OBR projections, only Scotland will see child poverty rates fall by 2029.

The UK Government won’t see progress on child poverty by the end of this Parliament – even with high economic growth – if investment in social security does not form a part of its child poverty strategy.

The report looked at various scenarios of economic activity, assessing how poverty in the UK would be affected. In the central scenario, without further policy changes, by 2029, almost 1 in 3 children would still be in poverty in England, but in Scotland there would be closer to 1 in 5 children in poverty in large part due to Scotland-specific policies; and child poverty in Scotland would be just 70% of the level in England.

Researchers said that, if the rest of the UK were to see the same reduction in the share of children in poverty achieved in Scotland, 800,000 fewer children would be in poverty.

The report warned, however, that while the Scottish Government did appear to be making progress, it will remain some way off reaching its child poverty reduction targets without further action.

The report estimates that there are 4.3 million children are currently living in poverty in the UK, with child poverty rates are already much higher in England (30%) and Wales (29%) compared to Scotland (24%) and Northern Ireland (23%).

JRF examined changes in child poverty levels between January 2025 and January 2029 based on different assumptions about the growth of the UK economy. If the UK economy grows in line with the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) forecast over the next 4 years, child poverty rates in Scotland, already lower than the rest of the UK, will fall further by 2029. This results in a difference of nearly 10 percentage points between Scotland and the rest of the UK by 2029, up from 7 percentage points in 2025.

A strong economy can increase wages and employment but will not in itself reduce poverty. Even if the UK economy grows significantly more than expected, overall child poverty rates show little change and could even rise if growth benefits higher income households more than lower income ones. Specific, targeted policies are needed if child poverty rates are to come down.

JRF analysis shows that none of the 9 English regions are likely to see a fall in child poverty between 2024 and 2029, with 5 regions modelled as having increases over the period and the remaining regions showing no change.

In previous years, differences in child poverty rates across the UK nations were driven by lower average housing costs in Scotland and Northern Ireland.

However, JRF’s latest analysis shows a similar reduction in poverty levels before housing costs are taken into account for children in Scotland compared to the rest of the UK. This strongly suggests that welfare policies, such as the Scottish Child Payment and mitigating the two-child limit from 2026, which boost the incomes of the parents of who receive them, are behind Scotland bucking the trend of rising child poverty rates elsewhere in the UK.

Later this year the UK Government will publish an 'ambitious' cross-government child poverty strategy. The JRF report said that “any respectable child poverty strategy must include action on social security,” such as abolishing the two-child limit and introducing a protected minimum amount of support to Universal Credit.

Larger families and lone parent families were found to be at the highest risk of poverty, with these families disproportionately impacted by specific welfare policies such as the two-child limit and the benefit cap.

“Growing levels of poverty and insecurity are acting as a tightening brake on growth and opportunity," Paul Kissack, Chief Executive of the Joseph Rowntree Foundation, said.

“We can’t expect children to be ready for school or able to learn if they’re going without the basics. Growing up in poverty can also lead to poor health, increasing pressure on the NHS. Child poverty will only be driven down through focused, deliberate and determined policy action. Even very strong economic growth won’t automatically change the picture.

“Policy action must start with the system designed to help people meet their costs of living – social security. At the moment that system is not only failing to do its job but, worse, actively pushing some people into deeper poverty, through cruel limits and caps.

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